Paul Herring: Created page with "Not to be confused with Niall Ferguson. == Qualifications == * 1987 - 1990 - MA in Physics, University of Oxford [https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-fe..."

2020-10-26T12:06:04Z

Created page with "Not to be confused with Niall Ferguson. == Qualifications == * 1987 - 1990 - MA in Physics, University of Oxford <ref name="linkedin">[https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-fe..."

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Not to be confused with [[Niall Ferguson]].

== Qualifications ==
* 1987 - 1990 - MA in Physics, University of Oxford <ref name="linkedin">[https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-ferguson-ab364412/ Neil Ferguson] - LinkedIn</ref>

* 1990 - 1994 - DPhil in Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford <ref name="linkedin" />

== Positions held ==

* 2007 - Present - Director, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, [[Imperial College London]] <ref name="linkedin" />
* 2012 - Present - Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, [[Imperial College London]] <ref name="linkedin" />
* 2014 - Present - Director, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology, [[Imperial College London]] <ref name="linkedin" />

== Background ==

Colloquially known as Professor Pantsdown
<ref>[https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5604532/neil-ferguson-stay-home-lockdown-advice-unreliable-code/ 'IT'S A MESS' Professor Pantsdown’s ‘Stay At Home’ lockdown advice based on badly written and unreliable computer code, experts say] - The Sun</ref>
<ref>[https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/professor-pantsdown-might-done-favour-21983566 Professor Pantsdown might have done us all a favour by massaging the Staats] - The Mirror</ref>
<ref>[https://www.scotsman.com/news/uk-news/covid-19-why-we-may-regret-loss-professor-lockdown-kevan-christie-2847180 Covid-19: Why we may regret loss of ‘Professor Lockdown’] - The Scotsman</ref>
, after breaking his own COVID-19 lockdown rules (only essential travel, don't go to other people's homes) in May 2020 to go and visit his married lover [[Antonia Staats]].

Better known for his inability to accurately forecast things involving his apparent area of knowledge (including COVID-19):

* 2001 - Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the UK 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, deemed later to have been totally unnecessary <ref>[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13299666 Mass culling for foot-and-mouth 'may be unnecessary'] - [[BBC]]</ref>. It cost the UK economy £10 billion<ref>[https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278465/neil-ferguson-coronavirus-imperial-college-london-epidemiology-sage-spt Neil Ferguson: Coronavirus response adviser's previous epidemic mistakes revealed] - [[The Express]]</ref>

* 2002 - Ferguson predicted that, by 2080, up to 150,000 people could die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.<ref>[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/ Neil Ferguson, the scientist who convinced Boris Johnson of UK coronavirus lockdown, criticised in past for flawed research] - [[The Telegraph]]</ref>

* 2005 - Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.<ref name="nationalreview">[https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/professor-lockdown-modeler-resigns-in-disgrace/ ‘Professor Lockdown’ Modeler Resigns in Disgrace] - [[National Review]]</ref>

* 2009 - A UK government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.<ref name="nationalreview" />

* 2020 - Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease, of 500,000 deaths unless an immediate lockdown was implemented, was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.<ref name="nationalreview" /> Other data analysts opined that using such modelling in a private business context would get one fired.<ref>[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8327641/Coronavirus-modelling-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html Computer code for Prof Lockdown's model which predicted 500,000 would die from Covid-19 and inspired Britain's 'Stay Home' plan is a 'mess which would get you fired in private industry' say data experts] - [[The Daily Mail]]</ref>

==References==

{{Reflist}}

[[Category:People]]

[[Category:COVID-19]]

Neil Ferguson - Revision history

Paul Herring: Created page with "Not to be confused with Niall Ferguson. == Qualifications == * 1987 - 1990 - MA in Physics, University of Oxford [https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-fe..."