Paul Herring at 11:53, 18 June 2014

2014-06-18T11:53:18Z

Paul Herring: Created page with "The Total Consumption Model is a, now discredited theory, that was devised in the 1950s that stated: {{quote|...that the amount of harmful drinking in a population is a f..."

2014-06-18T11:34:43Z

Created page with "The Total Consumption Model is a, now discredited theory, that was devised in the 1950s that stated: {{quote|...that the amount of harmful drinking in a population is a f..."

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The [[Total Consumption Model]] is a, now discredited theory, that was devised in the 1950s that stated:

{{quote|...that the amount of harmful drinking in a population is a fixed percentage of the amount of overall drinking, so if per capita consumption goes up, harm will go up, and if per capita consumption goes down, harm will go down.<ref name="vgif_punish">[http://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/punishing-drinking-majority.html Punishing the drinking majority] - Velvet Glove, Iron Fist blog</ref>}}

While there is a relationship between the two, this is a rather blunt model upon which to base nationwide policy on alcohol. There are two fallacies with [[Total Consumption Model]] (as discussed in [[Punishing The Majority]]):
* In line with the [[wikipedia:Pareto principle|Pareto principle]], a disproportionate amount of alcohol is drunk by a small percentage of the population, skewing any effect changing the 'average amount' drunk may make:
{{quote|In Britain, more than 40 per cent of alcohol is consumed by ten per cent of the population. Close to 70 per cent is consumed by one fifth of the population.<ref name="vgif_punish" />}}
* Those who drink the most, don't cause the most harm:
{{quote|If you look at drinking patterns within the UK, it is the poorest socio-economic groups that have the lowest average consumption, but it is these groups that have the highest rates of alcohol-related mortality. By contrast, the richest groups drink the most and suffer the least harm.<ref name="vgif_punish" />}}

Despite the fact that this is a discredited theory, (and some people have argued that the [[Total Consumption Model]] is attacking a [[wikipedia:strawman|strawman]]<ref name="vgif_belief">[http://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/who-believes-in-total-consumption-model.html Who believes in the Total Consumption Model?] - Velvet Glove, Iron Fist blog</ref>) it is still endorsed, either implicitly or explicitly to defend policy changes:

{{quote|1='''Population-wide interventions'''

However, taken together, they [the recommendations of the report] are very likely to improve the health of the population as a whole. As indicated by the [http://www.openpop.org/?p=375 Rose hypothesis], a small reduction in risk among a large number of people may prevent many more cases, rather than treating a small number at higher risk.

[..]

In this instance, the number of people who drink a heavy or excessive amount in a given population is related to how much the whole population drinks on average. Thus, reducing the average drinking level, via population interventions, is likely to reduce the number of people with severe problems due to alcohol.<ref>[http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/live/13001/48984/48984.pdf Alcohol-use disorders: preventing
harmful drinking] - [[NICE]]</ref>}}

==References==

{{Reflist}}

[[Category:Alcohol]]

@@ Line 19: / Line 19: @@
 [..]
-In this instance, the number of people who drink a heavy or excessive amount in a given population is related to how much the whole population drinks on average. Thus, reducing the average drinking level, via population interventions, is likely to reduce the number of people with severe problems due to alcohol.<ref>[http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/live/13001/48984/48984.pdf Alcohol-use disorders: preventing
+In this instance, the number of people who drink a heavy or excessive amount in a given population is related to how much the whole population drinks on average. Thus, reducing the average drinking level, via population interventions, is likely to reduce the number of people with severe problems due to alcohol.<ref>[http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/live/13001/48984/48984.pdf Alcohol-use disorders: preventing harmful drinking] - [[NICE]]</ref>}}
 harmful drinking] - [[NICE]]</ref>}}
 ==References==

Total Consumption Model - Revision history

Paul Herring at 11:53, 18 June 2014

Paul Herring: Created page with "The Total Consumption Model is a, now discredited theory, that was devised in the 1950s that stated: {{quote|...that the amount of harmful drinking in a population is a f..."