University of Sheffield - Revision history

Paul Herring at 10:01, 8 August 2013

2013-08-08T10:01:06Z

Paul Herring: /* Doubts over research */

2012-10-15T17:55:02Z

Doubts over research

Paul Herring at 18:56, 3 October 2012

2012-10-03T18:56:53Z

Paul Herring at 18:50, 3 October 2012

2012-10-03T18:50:44Z

Paul Herring: Created page with "The University of Sheffield is the organisation that purported to perform research for the BBC's Panorama programme guestimating what effect minimum pricing would have..."

2012-10-03T18:47:40Z

Created page with "The University of Sheffield is the organisation that purported to perform research for the BBC's Panorama programme guestimating what effect minimum pricing would have..."

New page

The [[University of Sheffield]] is the organisation that purported to perform research for the BBC's Panorama programme guestimating what effect [[minimum pricing]] would have on the population of England were a minimum price to be adopted.

Unfortunately, someone "fat-fingered their keyboard," which resulted in a massive overestimate of the potential number of Old Age Pensioners lives that would be saved by 3⅓ times, [[Minimum_Pricing#The_University_of_Sheffield_farce_-_Sep_2012|increasing the nebulous 1,150 lives 'saved' per year to 50,000 per decade]] (see what I did there?)

As a result, the BBC had to issue a correction on their news article<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-19509434 Minimum alcohol price 'would save 11,500 pensioners'] - The BBC</ref>, and had to pull the iPlayer version of Panorama to re-edit the program in light of the 'new' figures<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01mrmfd Panorama] - The BBC iPlayer [http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01mrmfd WebCite archive]</ref>.

The Sheffield Alcohol Research Group of [[University of Sheffield]], themselves claim

{{quote|3,060 fewer deaths and 97,700 fewer hospital admissions in the tenth year after policy implementation</ref>[https://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/sections/ph/research/alpol/research/sapm The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM)] - [[University of Sheffield]]</ref>}}

So quite how the figure of 5,000 '''elderly''' lives saved per year from year one slipped out to be echoed via MSM passim, ad nauseum, and to sock-puppets such as www.minimumpricing.info<ref>[http://www.minimumpricing.info/ Minimum Pricing] www.minimumpricing.info [http://www.webcitation.org/6B90EkUFY WebCite archive with 50,000 figure]</ref> without peer-review, can only be imagined.

==References==
{{Reflist}}

[[Category:Alcohol]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:01, 8 August 2013
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	{{quote2\|“Note that these high-level estimates are provided for reference only and are not included in the model.”}}<ref>[http://www.liberal-vision.org/2012/10/12/minimum-pricing-autocratic-badly-researched-regressive-unchallenged-by-liberals/ Minimum Pricing– autocratic, badly researched, regressive & unchallenged by liberals.] - Liberal Vision</ref>}}		{{quote2\|“Note that these high-level estimates are provided for reference only and are not included in the model.”}}<ref>[http://www.liberal-vision.org/2012/10/12/minimum-pricing-autocratic-badly-researched-regressive-unchallenged-by-liberals/ Minimum Pricing– autocratic, badly researched, regressive & unchallenged by liberals.] - Liberal Vision</ref>}}
		+
		+	== Corrections ==
		+	Between the report being initially released in 2009, and 2013, various figures in the report were hugely reduced, to the point where it would make [[minimum pricing]] moot:
		+
		+	{{quote\|
		+	2009: 45p minimum price would cut consumption by 4.3%
		+
		+	2013: 45p minimum price would cut consumption by 1.6%
		+
		+
		+	2009: It would save 344 lives in year 1 and 2,040 lives a year by year 10
		+
		+	2013: It would save 123 lives in year 1 and 624 lives a year by year 10
		+
		+
		+	2009: Alcohol admissions would be down by 66,200
		+
		+	2013: Alcohol admissions would be down by 23,700
		+
		+
		+	2009: Year one direct health savings of £58.6m and cumulative ten year saving of £1,074m
		+
		+	2013: Year one direct health savings of £25.3m and cumulative ten year saving of £417.2m
		+
		+
		+	2009: Total societal value of harm reduction £6.6bn
		+
		+	2013: Total societal value of harm reduction £3.4bn<ref>[http://dickpuddlecote.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/what-ian-gilmore-didnt-tell-northern.html What Ian Gilmore Didn't Tell Northern Ireland Yesterday] - Dick Puddlecote blog</ref>}}

	==References==		==References==

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:55, 15 October 2012
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	In fact, a number of the results in the Sheffield research are based on estimates: daily maximum consumption for 11 to 15 year olds is estimated; it is assumed that that the peak consumptions for 11 to 15 year olds are the same as 16 and 17 year olds; the data used is from 2003 (other sources indicate consumption levels have fallen in the last 3 years);...<ref>[http://licensinglaws.wordpress.com/2012/05/17/the-sociology-of-minimum-pricing/ The Sociology of Minimum Pricing] - Stephen McGowan's Licensing Blawg</ref>}}		In fact, a number of the results in the Sheffield research are based on estimates: daily maximum consumption for 11 to 15 year olds is estimated; it is assumed that that the peak consumptions for 11 to 15 year olds are the same as 16 and 17 year olds; the data used is from 2003 (other sources indicate consumption levels have fallen in the last 3 years);...<ref>[http://licensinglaws.wordpress.com/2012/05/17/the-sociology-of-minimum-pricing/ The Sociology of Minimum Pricing] - Stephen McGowan's Licensing Blawg</ref>}}
		+
		+
		+	Elsewhere...
		+
		+	{{quote\|The Sheffield team do acknowledge some quite significant discrepancies between their model and previous work. Faced with the fact that their methodology produces results inconsistent with other findings for price elasticity in heavier drinkers they do provide an analysis that is consistent with the literature…
		+
		+	{{quote2\|“To enable more direct comparability with the estimates in the literature we have also generated elasticity estimates for total alcohol purchasing from the EFS, shown in Table 11. These are in broad agreement with the literature, showing that - at the highest level of aggregation – hazardous and harmful drinkers (combined elasticity of -0.21) are less price elastic than moderate drinkers (elasticity of -0.47).”}}
		+
		+	….but then ignore it.
		+
		+	{{quote2\|“Note that these high-level estimates are provided for reference only and are not included in the model.”}}<ref>[http://www.liberal-vision.org/2012/10/12/minimum-pricing-autocratic-badly-researched-regressive-unchallenged-by-liberals/ Minimum Pricing– autocratic, badly researched, regressive & unchallenged by liberals.] - Liberal Vision</ref>}}

	==References==		==References==

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:56, 3 October 2012
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	{{quote\|The University emphasised the human error was wholly on their part and has apologised unreservedly to the BBC.<ref name="iplayer" />}}		{{quote\|The University emphasised the human error was wholly on their part and has apologised unreservedly to the BBC.<ref name="iplayer" />}}

		+	== Doubts over research ==
		+	It appears that even the research carried out by the [[University of Sheffield]] is somewhat suspect:
		+
		+	{{quote\|The results of the Sheffield research [for minimum pricing for the Scottish Parliament] are, after all, a totem carved from conjecture and guesswork (something which the authors of the report have themselves point out).
		+
		+	[...]
		+
		+	I admit that I am not qualified to “pick holes” in this research with authority. But, with fond memories of my MA in Sociology from some ten years ago, I do have some observations. The Sheffield research model for the relationship between price and consumption is an “econometric” model. This has been challenged by some sociologists and economists because it is model based on conjecture, and therefore there is some question about the reliability of using inferences to launch a major policy when such models are untested in reality. The Sheffield research indicates: “[d]ue to data limitations, the change in levels of peak consumption has to be estimated indirectly”.
		+
		+	[...]
		+
		+	In fact, a number of the results in the Sheffield research are based on estimates: daily maximum consumption for 11 to 15 year olds is estimated; it is assumed that that the peak consumptions for 11 to 15 year olds are the same as 16 and 17 year olds; the data used is from 2003 (other sources indicate consumption levels have fallen in the last 3 years);...<ref>[http://licensinglaws.wordpress.com/2012/05/17/the-sociology-of-minimum-pricing/ The Sociology of Minimum Pricing] - Stephen McGowan's Licensing Blawg</ref>}}

	==References==		==References==

@@ Line 3: / Line 3: @@
 Unfortunately, someone "fat-fingered their keyboard," which resulted in a massive overestimate of the potential number of Old Age Pensioners lives that would be saved by 3⅓ times, [[Minimum_Pricing#The_University_of_Sheffield_farce_-_Sep_2012|increasing the nebulous 1,150 lives 'saved' per year to 50,000 per decade]] (see what I did there?)
-As a result, the BBC had to issue a correction on their news article<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-19509434 Minimum alcohol price 'would save 11,500 pensioners'] - The BBC</ref>, and had to pull the iPlayer version of Panorama to re-edit the program in light of the 'new' figures<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01mrmfd Panorama] - The BBC iPlayer [http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01mrmfd WebCite archive]</ref>.
+As a result, the BBC had to issue a correction on their news article<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-19509434 Minimum alcohol price 'would save 11,500 pensioners'] - The BBC</ref>, and had to pull the iPlayer version of Panorama to re-edit the program in light of the 'new' figures<ref name="iplayer">[http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01mrmfd Panorama] - The BBC iPlayer [http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01mrmfd WebCite archive]</ref>.
 The Sheffield Alcohol Research Group of [[University of Sheffield]], themselves claim
-{{quote|3,060 fewer deaths and 97,700 fewer hospital admissions in the tenth year after policy implementation</ref>[https://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/sections/ph/research/alpol/research/sapm The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM)] - [[University of Sheffield]]</ref>}}
+{{quote|3,060 fewer deaths and 97,700 fewer hospital admissions in the tenth year after policy implementation<ref>[https://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/sections/ph/research/alpol/research/sapm The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM)] - Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, [[University of Sheffield]]</ref>}}
 So quite how the figure of 5,000 '''elderly''' lives saved per year from year one slipped out to be echoed via MSM passim, ad nauseum, and to sock-puppets such as www.minimumpricing.info<ref>[http://www.minimumpricing.info/ Minimum Pricing] www.minimumpricing.info [http://www.webcitation.org/6B90EkUFY WebCite archive with 50,000 figure]</ref> without peer-review, can only be imagined.