Difference between revisions of "Wakefield, Hayes, Durkin, and Borland (2013)"

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A rather one-sided review of the Australian [plain packaging] experiment entitled [http://www.bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/7/e003175 Introduction effects of the Australian plain packaging policy on adult smokers: a cross-sectional study], notoriously used as proof of success in since one of its conclusions was
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A rather one-sided review of the Australian [[plain packaging]] experiment entitled [http://www.bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/7/e003175 Introduction effects of the Australian plain packaging policy on adult smokers: a cross-sectional study]. It was apparently a phone survey<ref name="vfig">[http://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/that-plain-packaging-study.html That plain packaging study ] - Velvet Glove, Iron Fist blog</ref>, and has been notoriously used as 'proof of success' since one of its conclusions was
{{quote|(smokerson plain packs) were more likely to have thought about quitting at least once a day in the past week (AdjOR{{=}}1.81, p{{=}}0.013) and to rate quitting as a higher priority in their lives (F{{=}}13.11, df{{=}}1, p<0.001).}}
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{{quote|(smokers on plain packs) were more likely to have '''thought''' about quitting at least once a day in the past week (AdjOR{{=}}1.81, p{{=}}0.013) and to '''rate''' quitting as a higher priority in their lives (F{{=}}13.11, df{{=}}1, p<0.001).}}
  
Clearly, the implication that everyone who thinks about quitting, actually does, is nonsense.
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Clearly, the implication that everyone who thinks about quitting, [[Stated preferences do not align with revealed preferences|actually does]], is nonsense.
  
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The fact that these numbers equate to a nigh-on 10% difference in a cohort that seemed inclined to quit anyway doesn't really give much confidence in even the thoughts of the subjects:
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{{quote2|57.1% of those smoking from branded packs were "seriously considering quitting in the next 6 months", whereas this rose to 68.8% for those smoking from plain packs.<ref name="vfig" />}}
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Note, too, that no follow-up was every carried out. The authors of the report still don't know how many of those 57.1% (or, indeed 68.8%) actually gave up!
  
 
== Authors ==
 
== Authors ==

Latest revision as of 13:57, 23 July 2013

A rather one-sided review of the Australian plain packaging experiment entitled Introduction effects of the Australian plain packaging policy on adult smokers: a cross-sectional study. It was apparently a phone survey[1], and has been notoriously used as 'proof of success' since one of its conclusions was

(smokers on plain packs) were more likely to have thought about quitting at least once a day in the past week (AdjOR=1.81, p=0.013) and to rate quitting as a higher priority in their lives (F=13.11, df=1, p<0.001).

Clearly, the implication that everyone who thinks about quitting, actually does, is nonsense.

The fact that these numbers equate to a nigh-on 10% difference in a cohort that seemed inclined to quit anyway doesn't really give much confidence in even the thoughts of the subjects:

57.1% of those smoking from branded packs were "seriously considering quitting in the next 6 months", whereas this rose to 68.8% for those smoking from plain packs.[1]

Note, too, that no follow-up was every carried out. The authors of the report still don't know how many of those 57.1% (or, indeed 68.8%) actually gave up!

Authors

References

  1. a b That plain packaging study - Velvet Glove, Iron Fist blog