Neil Ferguson
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Not to be confused with Niall Ferguson.
Qualifications
- 1987 - 1990 - MA in Physics, University of Oxford [1]
- 1990 - 1994 - DPhil in Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford [1]
Positions held
- 2007 - Present - Director, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London [1]
- 2012 - Present - Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London [1]
- 2014 - Present - Director, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London [1]
Background
Colloquially known as Professor Pantsdown [2] [3] [4] , after breaking his own COVID-19 lockdown rules (only essential travel, don't go to other people's homes) in May 2020 to go and visit his married lover Antonia Staats.
Better known for his inability to accurately forecast things involving his apparent area of knowledge (including COVID-19):
- 2001 - Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the UK 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, deemed later to have been totally unnecessary [5]. It cost the UK economy £10 billion[6]
- 2002 - Ferguson predicted that, by 2080, up to 150,000 people could die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.[7]
- 2005 - Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.[8]
- 2009 - A UK government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.[8]
- 2020 - Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease, of 500,000 deaths unless an immediate lockdown was implemented, was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.[8] Other data analysts opined that using such modelling in a private business context would get one fired.[9]
References
- ↑ a b c d e Neil Ferguson - LinkedIn
- ↑ 'IT'S A MESS' Professor Pantsdown’s ‘Stay At Home’ lockdown advice based on badly written and unreliable computer code, experts say - The Sun
- ↑ Professor Pantsdown might have done us all a favour by massaging the Staats - The Mirror
- ↑ Covid-19: Why we may regret loss of ‘Professor Lockdown’ - The Scotsman
- ↑ Mass culling for foot-and-mouth 'may be unnecessary' - BBC
- ↑ Neil Ferguson: Coronavirus response adviser's previous epidemic mistakes revealed - The Express
- ↑ Neil Ferguson, the scientist who convinced Boris Johnson of UK coronavirus lockdown, criticised in past for flawed research - The Telegraph
- ↑ a b c ‘Professor Lockdown’ Modeler Resigns in Disgrace - National Review
- ↑ Computer code for Prof Lockdown's model which predicted 500,000 would die from Covid-19 and inspired Britain's 'Stay Home' plan is a 'mess which would get you fired in private industry' say data experts - The Daily Mail